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简要介绍了枯水径流预报的传统方法之一——前后期径流相关法及时间序列分析方法中的最优模糊划分自激励门限自回归模型和非季节性多元自回归模型、建立了泾、洛、渭河三大自流引水灌区泾惠渠(泾河张家山)、洛惠渠(北洛河(氵状)头)和宝鸡峡引渭灌区(渭河林家村)的枯水期(11—4月)候、旬、月平均流量预报模型.在对模型的评定与检验基础上,推荐了可用于三大灌区枯水期灌溉水源的作业预报漠型,提出了改进和完善现有模型及进一步研究的方向。
This paper briefly introduces one of the traditional methods of runoff forecast, ie, the optimal fuzzy partition auto-excitation threshold autoregressive model and non-seasonal multiple autoregressive model in the runoff and runoff correlation method and time series analysis method, (11-4 months) when Weihui River (Jinghe River Zhangjia Mountain), Luohui Canal (Beiluo River head) and Baoji Xiawei Yinwei irrigation area (Weihe Linjia Village) Based on the assessment and test of the model, the operational prediction model which can be used for the irrigation water supply in the dry season of the three major irrigation districts is recommended, and the existing model and the direction of further research are put forward.