论文部分内容阅读
本文首先构建了金融发展指数,使用小波变换法将金融发展和经济增长分解成短、中、长和全周期四个序列,然后在考虑了控制变量影响的情况下,分别使用Granger因果检验、交叉谱和VAR方法相互印证,检验金融发展与经济增长周期关系的存在性、领先滞后关系和影响系数的符号和大小。结果表明,金融发展和经济增长在不同周期上都存在显著的复杂因果关系。据此本文提出了均衡发展不同期限的金融市场以及均衡配置经济增长对不同期限金融融资需求的政策建议。
This dissertation firstly constructs the financial development index, decomposes the financial development and economic growth into four sequences of short, medium, long and full cycle using the wavelet transform method. Then, using the Granger causality test and the crossover The spectrum and the VAR method confirm each other and test the existence of the relationship between the financial development and the economic growth cycle, the leading lag and the sign and size of the influence coefficient. The results show that there are significant complex causal relationships between financial development and economic growth at different periods. Based on this, the paper puts forward the policy recommendations for the balanced development of financial markets with different maturities and the balanced allocation of economic growth to the financial financing needs of different maturities.