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基于Logistic方程建立大豆干物质累积曲线用来描述大豆干物质累积过程,由于气候条件处于非理想状态,因此对其干物质累积过程进行气象条件订正,并分析干物质累积量与气候产量的关系。在以上分析的基础上,建立大豆农业气象产量预测模式。通过计算分析温度和水分订正系数发现:在不同热量带、不同年份、不同发育时段,温度和水分订正系数不同,说明温度和水分条件是影响大豆生长发育和产量形成的重要限制因子。利用大豆主产区2004~2006年的气象和产量资料进行预报,预报精确度在95.9%左右,且预测产量与实际产量相关性较好,R2在0.903~0.948之间,通过α=0.01的显著性检验,说明模型预测的产量比较准确,模型可用。
Based on the Logistic equation, the accumulation curve of soybean dry matter was established to describe the dry matter accumulation process of soybean. Because the climatic conditions were not ideal, the meteorological conditions were corrected for the dry matter accumulation process, and the relationship between dry matter accumulation and climate production was analyzed. Based on the above analysis, the forecast mode of soybean agro-meteorological production is established. Through the calculation and analysis of temperature and moisture correction coefficient, it is found that the correction factors of temperature and moisture are different in different heat zones, different years and different development stages, indicating that temperature and moisture conditions are important limiting factors that affect the growth and yield formation of soybean. The forecasting accuracy was about 95.9% based on the meteorological and yield data of main soybean producing areas from 2004 to 2006, and the correlation between predicted yield and actual yield was good. R2 was between 0.903 and 0.948, The result shows that the output of the model is more accurate and the model is available.