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2016年上半年,财政政策明显积极,扩张性的财政政策得益于土地出售收入的周期性反弹。中国经济虽然呈现清晰的下行趋势,但也同时处于一个房地产市场和房贷政策相互作用的上行周期。2016年第二季度后,这个周期将进入下行通道。更困难的阶段是2017年第一季度以后,经济周期下行进入探底阶段。因此,政府应该重视刺激政策的边际效果,将其保留至经济底部时使用为宜。技术、人力资本密集服务业发展是释放新动能的中流砥柱,但其发展面临诸多瓶颈。打破新动能发展瓶颈需要政府职能作出一系列的重大改革,要找到突破口循序渐进。
In the first half of 2016, the fiscal policy was obviously positive. The expansionary fiscal policy benefited from the cyclical rebound of land sales revenue. Although China’s economy shows a clear downward trend, it is also at the same time an upward cycle of the interaction between the real estate market and the mortgage policy. After the second quarter of 2016, this cycle will enter the downward path. The more difficult phase is after the first quarter of 2017, the economic cycle down into the bottom phase. Therefore, the government should attach importance to the marginal effect of stimulus and use it as it is reserved for the bottom of the economy. Technology and human capital-intensive service industry development are the mainstay of releasing new momentum, but their development faces many bottlenecks. Breaking the bottleneck in the development of new kinetic energy requires a series of major reforms in the functions of the government. It is necessary to find a breakthrough step by step.