目的　预测糖尿病死亡率的变化趋势。方法　利用灰色系统GM(1,1)预测模型Y(t) =[x(1) - ua]e-a(t-1) +ua]分别预测 1999至 2 0 0 4年糖尿病的死亡率趋势。结果　依据某市 1991至 1998年糖尿病死亡率资料 ,所建立的灰色预测模型为 :Y(t) =4 92 .36e0 .0 3 2 8(t-1) - 4 77.0 3,拟合结果显示 ,模型的平均误差率为 1.8% ,精度为优 (C =0 .2 9,P =1)。结论　预测结果表明 :近 10a来糖尿病的死亡率呈持续上升趋势 Objective To predict the trend of diabetes mortality. Methods The gray system GM (1,1) prediction model Y (t) = [x (1) - ua] e-a (t-1) + ua was used to predict the trend of mortality in diabetes from 1999 to 2004. Results According to the data of diabetes mortality from 1991 to 1998 in a certain city, the gray forecasting model was established as follows: Y (t) = 4 92 .36e0 .0 3 2 8 (t-1) - 4 77.0 3. According to the fitting results, The average error rate of the model was 1.8% with good accuracy (C = 0.29, P = 1). Conclusion The prediction results show that the mortality rate of diabetes has been on the rise for nearly 10 years