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预测是决策的前提,科学的预测能为正确的决策提供信息和依据。目前,统计预测的理论和方法已广泛应用于医学领域,并成为医院实行科学管理的重要工具之一,是医院制定计划目标,进行定量管理的重要依据。住院人数是医院病房和有关科室、全部职工使用全部器材的工作对象,是医院经济效益的主要来源,及时准确地预测住院人数,可为医院管理提供科学依据,有助于医院人员、床位、药品等调配工作。在此我们根据医院近几年的住院人数资料对2002年的住院人数进行预测。在住院人数这个时间数列中,不仅存在着长期趋势,而且存在着季节变动的影响,为了同时兼顾长期趋势和季节变动的影响,选用趋势季节模型对2002年住院人数进行分析和预测。
Forecasting is the premise of decision-making. Scientific prediction can provide information and basis for correct decision-making. At present, the theory and methods of statistical forecasting have been widely used in the medical field, and have become one of the important tools for hospitals to implement scientific management. They are important basis for hospitals to make plans and carry out quantitative management. The number of inpatients is the object of work for hospital wards and related departments, and all employees use all the equipment. It is the main source of economic benefits for hospitals. It predicts the number of hospitalizations in a timely and accurate manner, and can provide scientific basis for hospital management, contributing to hospital personnel, beds, and medicines. And other deployment work. Here we predict the number of hospital stays in 2002 based on hospital admissions data in recent years. In the time series of hospitalization, there are not only long-term trends but also seasonal changes. To take into account the effects of long-term trends and seasonal changes, the trend season model is used to analyze and predict the number of hospital admissions in 2002.