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文章利用1990—2013年128个样本国家的跨国面板数据对中国城镇化和经济发展的关系在钱纳里模型的基础上进行实证研究。结果表明,1990年以来中国的城镇化和经济发展的关系基本符合国家一般规律,相较于国际一般的城镇化与经济发展路径,中国的城镇化水平与经济发展水平相比略显滞后。通过对固定效应模型个体效应的分析表明,中国的城镇化滞后主要是由阻碍城镇化发展的制度安排所导致,且这种制度障碍呈现不断减弱的趋势。因此,要使中国的城镇化走健康可持续发展的道路,必须在加强经济发展的同时,对政府的政策制度安排进行不断变革。
The article uses the cross-country panel data of 128 sample countries from 1990 to 2013 to analyze the relationship between urbanization and economic development in China based on the Chinari model. The results show that the relationship between urbanization and economic development in China basically conforms to the general laws of the country since 1990. Compared with the international urbanization and economic development path, China’s urbanization level is slightly behind the level of economic development. The analysis of the individual effect of the fixed effects model shows that the lagging urbanization in China is mainly caused by the institutional arrangements that impede the development of urbanization and the barriers to such institutional systems are constantly declining. Therefore, to make China’s urbanization take the path of healthy and sustainable development, it is necessary to make continuous changes to the government’s policy and institutional arrangements while strengthening economic development.