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目的预测我院门诊人次和住院人数,为制定“十二五”各项计划提供理论依据。方法用时间数列指标平均增长量和回归直线方程进行预测。结果通过方差分析得到前十年门诊人次和住院人数P<0.01,线性关系显著。从而得到门诊人次预测模型为:Y=141.124+20.742t,出院人次预测模型为:Y=4.524+0.776t,得到预测年的点预测值和区间预测值。即在各种条件相对稳定的情况下平均每年分别增加20,742人次和776人。结论回归直线方程进行预测,是统计理论在实际工作中的应用,具有较好的实用性。
Objective To predict the number of outpatient visits and hospitalizations in our hospital and provide a theoretical basis for formulating the “Twelve-Five” plan. Methods Using the time series index average growth and regression linear equations to predict. Results The ANOVA showed that there was a significant linear relationship between the number of outpatients and the number of inpatients in the first decade (P <0.01). The outpatient population forecasting model is as follows: Y = 141.124 + 20.742t, and the discharge forecasting model is: Y = 4.524 + 0.776t, and the predicted point prediction value and interval forecast value are obtained. That is, with an average increase of 20,742 person-times and 776 people each year under relatively stable conditions. Conclusions The regression linear equation to predict is the application of statistical theory in practical work and has good practicability.