由于股改全面推进的难度与阻力正在加大,投资者关于对价幅度的预期发生较大波动,集中体现在近期市场的调整中。我们认为投资者需要略微向下修正对价预期,但依据两大主导部门谈判能力最终仍能实现较理想的对价幅度。我们判断节后局部反弹行情仍可期待,但宏观经济减速、企业盈利增速放缓、扩容预期增强、资金压力短期加大等因素决定了反弹高度有限,中长期看1000-1200点的底部区域仍需反复夯实。 Due to the difficulty and resistance of the comprehensive reform of the stock reform, the investors’ expectation on the price margin has been greatly fluctuated, which is mainly reflected in the recent market adjustment. We think investors need to revise down the consideration of consideration slightly, but ultimately the ideal price range will still be achieved based on the negotiation ability of the two leading departments. We judge the local post-holiday rally may still be expected, but the macroeconomic slowdown, corporate earnings growth slowdown, expansion is expected to increase, short-term financial pressure and other factors determine the rebound is limited, the long term to see the bottom of the 1000-1200 points Still need to be compacted repeatedly.