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为了促进陕西省天然气协调发展,应对天然气供需矛盾,通过介绍陕西省天然气供应量的组成、天然气消费量增长情况以及逐年增大的供需缺口。分析了天然气长输管网的负荷分布、运行特点以及燃气用户的用气特征,总结出影响陕西省天然气供需平衡的主要因素:供应量与需求量不均衡,天然气管网负荷不均衡,现有用户需求变化不均衡。建立了陕西省天然气年需求量数学模型,预测了近三年陕西省天然气的消费量和调峰量,针对预测值,结合供需平衡影响因素,提出了解决措施:争取多种类、多方向的供气来源,扩大天然气市场,多级共担调峰,合理化用户结构,保障陕西省天然气供需平衡。
In order to promote the coordinated development of natural gas in Shaanxi Province and to cope with the contradiction between supply and demand of natural gas, this paper introduces the composition of natural gas supply in Shaanxi Province, the growth of natural gas consumption and the increasing supply and demand gap year by year. The load distribution, operation characteristics and gas consumption characteristics of gas users are analyzed. The main factors that affect the balance between supply and demand of natural gas in Shaanxi Province are summarized as imbalanced supply and demand, unbalanced load of natural gas pipelines, User needs change unevenly. The mathematical model of annual natural gas demand in Shaanxi Province was established. The consumption and peak regulation of natural gas in Shaanxi Province in recent three years were predicted. According to the predicted value and the influencing factors of supply and demand balance, some solutions were proposed: Gas sources, expand the natural gas market, multi-level share peak load, rationalize the user structure to ensure the balance of natural gas supply and demand in Shaanxi Province.