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自7月份以来,随着标普降低美国长期主权信用评级事件的发生,全球市场开始进入“后美债危机”时代。其代表性的事件之一便是全球资本市场信心缺失,股市恐慌性暴跌,大宗商品市场同样如此。而其背景则是全球经济增长减缓甚至停滞,衰退风险高涨,欧债危机等类似标普评级降低的黑天鹅事件如影随形。目前,欧债危机正处于天堂与地狱之间的分界点,市场二次衰退的呼声也一浪高过一浪。在这个市场走势扑朔迷离的时间点,我们尝试还原主要经济体的基本面情况,为外汇市场走势指出依据。
Since July, with the S & P reducing the U.S. long-term sovereign credit rating incident, the global market has begun to enter an era of “post-US debt crisis.” One of its representative events is the lack of confidence in the global capital markets, the panic in the stock market and the same in commodity markets. The background is the global economic growth slowed down or even stagnant, rising risk of recession, the European debt crisis and other similar S & P downgrades Black Swan events go hand in hand. At present, the debt crisis in Europe is at the demarcation point between heaven and hell, and the second round of market doldrums is also wave after wave. At a time when the market is so complicated, we try to restore the fundamentals of the major economies and point out the trend of the foreign exchange market.