论文部分内容阅读
目的探讨西安市军队男性老年人慢性阻塞性肺病(COPD)死亡危险因素及相互关系。方法研究对象为1987年西安市22个军队干休所的全部男性离休干部,共计1268人。终点指标为全死因和COPD死亡。结果截止2005年6月30日,共观察18 766．28人年,平均随访14．35年;死亡491例,748人存活,29人失访。死亡总例数中COPD居第二位,占16．90％;COPD单因素分析:年龄的RR值95％CI为[1．13(1．09～1．17)]、每日吸烟量[1．04(1．02～1．06)]、吸烟年限[1．03 (1．01～1．04)]、负性生活事件[1．81(2．85～6．77)]、既往COPD史[4．39(2.85～6．77)]为COPD死亡危险因素;多因素分析结果显示:年龄的RR值95％CI为[1．10(1．06～1．15)]、每日吸烟量[1．03 (1_01～1．06)]、既往COPD史[3．07(1．90～4．98)]为COPD死亡危险因素;其死亡危险性随既往吸烟量的增多和吸烟年限的延长而升高,存在明确的剂量反应关系;戒烟者总死亡的危险下降了66．67％。结论队列中COPD死亡居第二位;年龄、每日吸烟量和既往COPD史是COPD死亡的危险因素;戒烟对COPD死亡的影响有待进一步观察。
Objective To explore the risk factors and their relationship of death in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in male elders in Xi’an army. Methods The object of study was all male retired cadres in 22 military cadres in Xi’an in 1987, totaling 1,268. The end point was all-cause and COPD death. Results As of June 30, 2005, a total of 18 766.28 person-years were observed with an average follow-up of 14.35 years. 491 deaths, 748 survivors and 29 lost follow-up were observed. The total number of deaths in COPD ranked second, accounting for 16.90%; COPD univariate analysis: the age of the RR value of 95% CI [1.13 (1.09 ~ 1.17)], the daily amount of smoking [ 1.04 1.06 ~ 1.06), smoking duration [1.03 (1.01 ~ 1.04)], negative life events [1.81 (2.85 ~ 6.77)], The historical COPD history [4.39 (2.85 ~ 6.77)] was the risk factor of COPD mortality. The multivariate analysis showed that the 95% CI of RR was 1.10 (1.06-1.15) Daily smoking [1.03 (1_01 ~ 1.06)], history of previous COPD [3.07 (1.90-4.98)] was a risk factor for COPD death; its risk of death increased with previous smoking There was a clear dose-response relationship with the increase of smoking years, and the total death-quitting person’s risk dropped by 66.67%. Conclusions The cohort ranks the second leading cause of COPD death. The age, daily smoking amount and history of previous COPD are the risk factors of COPD mortality. The effect of smoking cessation on COPD remains to be further observed.