[目的]应用气候生产力对蔬菜产量进行预测分析。[方法]利用气候生产力模型和长期气候预测方法,结合实际蔬菜产量分析了北碚区气候生产潜力的变化特征。[结果]北碚区气候生产力呈波动变化,总体趋势稳定,空间分布差异明显,东北部生产潜力较好;在实际生产中蔬菜单产在下降,气候利用率也呈下降趋势;据预测,未来10年,蔬菜产量将出现小幅度的增长。[结论]该研究为针对北碚区气候条件下蔬菜种植的合理规划和布局以及蔬菜种植品种的选择提供了依据。 [Objective] The prediction and analysis of vegetable yield with climate productivity. [Method] Based on the climate productivity model and long-term climate prediction method, the characteristics of climate potential productivity in Beibei were analyzed based on the actual vegetable yield. [Result] The climate productivity in Beibei district fluctuated with the overall trend being stable and the spatial distribution obvious difference. The production potential in northeastern part was good. In the actual production, the yield per unit area of ​​vegetables dropped while the climate utilization rate also showed a downward trend. It is predicted that in the next 10 years , Vegetable output will show a slight increase. [Conclusion] The study provided the basis for rational planning and layout of vegetable planting under climate conditions in Beibei District and the selection of vegetable planting varieties.