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由于房地产市场持续火爆,针对房地产的信贷紧缩政策一道接着一道,国内流动性过剩的热度预期有所抑制。虽然欧美经济面临回暖,但是中国为首的新兴经济体,却在为避免经济泡沫而进入了紧缩周期,我们可以想象在2004年之后那一轮商品大幅回落的影像历历在目,可以讲商品的牛市并非发达经济体的持续繁荣造就,更多的是以中国为代表的新兴经济体的崛起所造就。作为商品市场的重要一环,农产品目前处在的位置却比较尴尬,国际谷物市场在供给压力下价位处于相对低位,目前相对其他商品来讲难有下跌空间,而大豆正在半山腰的水平目前也是可上可下的等待下一步美国的产量规模给予指引。总体上看,国内的玉米价格依然保持乐观的预期,但是对于蛋白原料目前市场正受到前所未有的挑战。
As the real estate market continues to be hot, the credit crunch on real estate goes hand in hand with the expectation that domestic excess liquidity will be dampened. Although the economies in Europe and the United States are getting warmer, the emerging economies led by China have entered a tightening cycle to avoid the economic bubble. We can imagine the vivid picture of a sharp drop in the commodity after 2004 and the bull market for commodities Not sustained prosperity of developed economies, more is the rise of emerging economies represented by China. As an important part of the commodity market, agricultural products are currently in a rather awkward position. The international cereal market is at a relatively low price under the pressure of supply. At present, there is no room for decline in terms of other commodities. However, the level of soybean on the mountainside is currently May be available for the next step in the United States to give guidance on the production scale. Overall, the domestic corn prices remain optimistic expectations, but for protein raw materials the market is being hitherto unknown challenges.