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遗产地旅游利益相关者之间的纠纷与冲突问题是阻碍旅游可持续发展的重要因素,寻找疏解利益纠纷与冲突的策略,对于遗产地旅游发展来说意义重大。本文运用指数随机图模型,以全球重要农业文化遗产地云南元阳哈尼梯田为例,建立了Markov随机图模型和高阶随机图模型,运用MCMC方法对两个模型参数进行模拟估计,并以样本标准误差和t统计值来判断模型参数达到聚敛的程度,以期寻找最优的估计模型。通过数据分析,高阶模型的聚敛情况要好于Markov模型,因此,最终选择高阶模型。依据高阶模型的网络核心—边缘趋势、重叠传递性趋势或凝聚子群趋势、受中间人控制或协调趋势参数估计结论,提出了利益网络治理建议。
Dispute and conflict between tourism stakeholders in heritage sites are an important factor hindering the sustainable development of tourism. Finding strategies for settling disputes and conflicts of interest is of great significance to tourism development in the heritage sites. In this paper, Markov random graph model and high-order stochastic graph model are established by exponential random graph model taking Hani terraces in Yuanyang, Yunnan as an important global agricultural heritage site. MCMC method is used to simulate the two model parameters. Standard error and t statistics to determine the degree of convergence of the model parameters in order to find the optimal estimation model. Through data analysis, the convergence of high-order model is better than Markov model, so the final choice of high-order model. According to the network core-edge trend, overlapping transitive trend or agglomeration subgroup tendency of high-order model, the middleman controls or coordinates the trend parameter estimation conclusion, and proposes the advice of interest network governance.