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以全寿命周期风资源评估思想对未来运营期风资源进行预测分析,得出每年的预测风速,根据此预测风速,得到每年的预测发电量,再进行项目的经济效益评价,从而更加接近实际情况。然后对项目风资源进行敏感性分析,以测风年份风速为基数,以20%的幅度进行敏感性分析,最终得出各个年份的经济效益。根据全寿命风资源理论进行分析得出的结论需要提高风电上网电价,才能使项目盈利。
Based on the life-cycle assessment of wind resources, the paper forecasts and analyzes the wind resources in the future and forecasts the annual wind speed. Based on this forecast wind speed, we can get the estimated annual power generation and then estimate the economic benefits of the project so as to be closer to the actual situation . Then, the sensitivity analysis of the project wind resources is carried out. Based on the wind speed of the year of wind measurement, the sensitivity analysis is carried out with the amplitude of 20%, and finally the economic benefits of each year are obtained. According to the analysis of life cycle wind resource theory, the conclusion drawn needs to increase the on-grid tariff of wind power to make the project profitable.