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政府管制对社会政治和经济具有重要的影响,大量的实证研究表明许多政府管制是无效的,有些甚至起到了负面的作用。本文针对世界经济一体化背景下我国粮食市场政府管制有效性问题,提出了国内外市场不存在长期均衡关系是政府市场管制有效性的前提的命题,并运用经济理论及计量经济学方法,以2003年3月至2007年9月国内外小麦市场每日及1993年6月至2007年3月国内外小麦现、期货月度数据实证证明。由此为政府实行管制前评估管制有效性提供一个判断的依据,避免类似“国储铜事件”等盲目的管制决策造成不必要的负面影响和损失。该方法也能被推广运用于其他大宗商品的政府管制领域,具有一定的普遍性及实际应用价值。
Government regulation has an important influence on social politics and economy. A large amount of empirical research shows that many government regulations are ineffective and some even have a negative effect. In the light of the validity of the government regulation of grain market under the background of world economic integration, this paper put forward the proposition that there is no long-term equilibrium relationship between the domestic and foreign markets and is the premise of the government market control effectiveness. Using economic theory and econometrics, From March to September 2007, the monthly domestic and international wheat markets daily and from June 1993 to March 2007 witnessed the monthly data of current and future wheat in the world. This will provide a basis for the government to assess the effectiveness of pre-regulatory assessment and control and avoid unnecessary negative impacts and losses caused by blind regulatory decisions such as the “State Reserve Copper Incident.” The method can also be applied to the field of government regulation of other commodities with a certain degree of universality and practical value.