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基于黄土丘陵退耕区米脂、安塞和吴起三县的农户抽样调查数据,运用灰色关联分析法定量测算该区域农业生态系统耦合协调发展态势,在此基础上建立计量经济模型实证分析国家退耕还林工程对农业生态系统耦合的影响.研究结果表明:1)黄土丘陵退耕区生态资源与农业生产耦合处于一种中度协调发展态势,并没有实现完全匹配与协调发展;2)退耕还林工程对样本地区农业生态系统的有序耦合产生了抑制作用,表现为退耕还林对农户生产结构调整激励不足.新一轮退耕还林工程的推进有必要考虑制定相应的激励措施,引导农户建立与生态资源禀赋相适应的、协调的农业生产模式.同时考虑将农业适应气候变化纳入退耕还林工程,以提高生态脆弱区的适应能力.该研究为我国生态脆弱地区农业发展和生态治理的政策制定提供决策依据.
Based on the sampling survey data of farmers in Mi Zhi, Ansai and Wu Qi counties in the returned farmland of the Loess Plateau, the gray relational analysis method was used to quantitatively measure the development of the coupling and coordinated development of agro-ecosystems in the region. Based on this, a econometric model was established to empirically analyze the return of farmland Forest engineering on the coupling of agroecosystem.The results show that: 1) the coupling of ecological resources and agro-production in the area of returning farmland to forestry in Loess Hilly is in a modest and coordinated development, and there is no complete match and coordinated development; 2) The orderly coupling of agroecosystem in the sample area had an inhibitory effect, which indicated that the conversion of cropland to forest was not enough incentive to farmers to adjust their production structure.For the promotion of the new round of conversion of cropland to forest project, it is necessary to consider formulating corresponding incentive measures to guide farmers to establish Ecological resources endowment compatible and coordinated mode of agricultural production.At the same time consider the agricultural adaptation to climate change into the project of returning farmland to forest in order to improve the resilience of ecologically fragile areas.This study for the ecological fragile areas of agricultural development and ecological management policy formulation Provide decision basis.