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气象干旱是青海省发生最为频繁的气象灾害之一,具有出现频率高、持续时间长、影响范围广等特点,对农业生产造成极大的影响,严重的干旱少雨之年常使农业大幅度减产,甚至绝收.为了研究气象干旱对青海省粮食产量产生的影响,根据拉格朗日插值方法给出了青海省无干旱时“期望产量”的确定方法,并据此求算出历年干旱对青海省粮食产量的损失量值,然后依据农作物不同生育期所发生的干旱的强度、范围以及作物对干旱的敏感度等关系,建立了干旱损失量的统计和评估模式.在2006-2010年青海省粮食产量评估中进行应用,5a中有4a误差小于5%,仅2006年误差百分率达到-9.38%;由此,证明了运用干旱损失评估方法,可以评估出干旱对粮食产量的损失量,从而评估出青海省的实际粮食产量,效果较好,可以在青海省今后的粮食产量预报和评估中推广应用.
Meteorological drought is one of the most frequent meteorological disasters in Qinghai Province. It has the characteristics of high frequency, long duration and wide range of impact, which has a great impact on agricultural production. Severe dry weather has often led to a significant reduction of agricultural output , Or even the total income.In order to study the impact of meteorological drought on the grain yield in Qinghai Province, according to the Lagrange interpolation method to determine the no-drought in Qinghai Province "expected yield Qinghai Province, the amount of loss of grain yield, and then based on the different crop growth stages of the drought intensity, the range and the sensitivity of crops to the relationship between drought, drought loss statistics and evaluation model established in 2006-2010 in Qinghai The results showed that the error of 4a was less than 5% in 5a and the percentage of error in 2006 was -9.38%. Thus, it was proved that using the drought loss assessment method, the loss of drought to grain yield could be evaluated, Assessment of the actual grain output in Qinghai Province, the effect is better, can be in the future of Qinghai Province to forecast and assess the food to promote the application.