In mod manufacturing patt, there are many uncertain factors in the mod manufacturing process, such as changes of product attribute, changes of manufacturing resources’ state, and so on, which cause production logistics bottleneck frequently shift, and make decisions of production planning and control based on formed bottleneck deviated from practical production process. Considering these factors, present researches mainly apply afterwards control to optimize production process to passively adapt to bottleneck changes. If the direction of bottleneck shifting can be accurately forecasted, the transition from afterwards control of chasing bottleneck to beforehand control can be realized. Therefore, aiming at the phenomenon of production logistics bottleneck shifting under uncertain manufacturing circumstances, this paper starts off with dynamic property of capability and requirement and then builds the concepts of bottleneck degree and bottleneck index to describe dynamic bottleneck characteristic of production unit;taken production capability, production load and quality assurance capability into consideration, mathematical model of bottleneck index is established to measure bottleneck degree accurately, consequently, quantitative research on mechanism of production logistics shifting is achieved. Based on bottleneck index, the prediction model of production logistics bottleneck is founded to predict dynamic change of bottleneck accurately. Finally, an example of forecasting and monitoring the production logistics bottleneck in one manufacturing shop is given to testify the validation and practicability of the prediction method.