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中国非金融企业的高杠杆率是整个国民经济杠杆率持续保持高位的主要推动力量。其中,非金融国有企业的杠杆率最高,是非金融企业中发生金融风险的主要所在。究其原因,非金融国企杠杆率高企在于:(1)充裕的流动性;(2)债务融资为主的融资结构;(3)影子银行规模的过度扩张;(4)国有企业的软预算约束和向国有企业倾斜的贷款分配机制。通过对不同领域的金融风险的表现分析,本文认为中国系统性金融风险的根源在于地方政府(国有企业)的预算软约束。在此基础上,本文通过中国季度宏观经济模型(CQMM),在国有企业预算软约束和预算硬约束两种不同情境下分别模拟分析逐步收紧货币供应量的数量型“去杠杆”政策可能产生的宏观经济效应,模拟结果显示,在国有企业预算软约束条件下降低M2增速无法实现预期的政策目标。基于上述政策模拟结果,课题组建议:必须转变以保增长为中心的发展思路;尽快建立现代财税制度,形成地方政府(国有企业)的预算硬约束;下决心从制度上消除土地财政;逐步收回超发的货币;合理控制货币总供应量,充分利用金融手段降低非金融国有企业的负债率;加大对影子银行的监管力度,回归金融的优化经济资源配置和利用职能。
The high leverage of non-financial enterprises in China is the main driving force for maintaining the overall leverage of the national economy at a high level. Among them, non-financial state-owned enterprises have the highest leverage, which is the main financial risk in non-financial enterprises. The reason is that the non-financial state-owned enterprises have a high leverage ratio: (1) abundant liquidity; (2) debt financing-based financing structure; (3) over-expansion of shadow banking scale; (4) soft budget constraints of SOEs And the lending allocation mechanism leaning to state-owned enterprises. By analyzing the performance of financial risk in different fields, this paper argues that the root cause of systemic financial risk in China lies in the soft budget constraint of local governments (SOEs). On this basis, through the China Quarterly Macroeconomic Model (CQMM), this paper simulates and analyzes the quantitative and “deleveraging” policies of gradually tightening the money supply in two different scenarios of the soft budget constraint and the budget rigid constraint of state-owned enterprises respectively The possible macroeconomic effects and the simulation results show that it is impossible to achieve the expected policy goal of reducing M2 growth under the soft budget constraints of state-owned enterprises. Based on the results of the above-mentioned policy simulation, the research group suggests that we must change the development thinking centered on ensuring growth; establish a modern fiscal and taxation system as soon as possible to form a budgetary hard-line constraint on local government (state-owned enterprises); and resolve to systematically eliminate land finance; Supervise the currency; a reasonable control of the total supply of money, make full use of financial means to reduce the non-financial state-owned enterprises debt ratio; increase supervision of shadow banking efforts to return to finance the optimal allocation of economic resources and the use of functions.