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为量化火灾模型输入参数的不确定性对灭火失效概率的影响,推动我国核电厂动态火灾概率安全评估(PSA)的开展,基于火灾区域模型、蒙特卡罗模拟与马尔科夫链,建立核电厂动态灭火失效概率计算方法。将此方法应用于某压水堆核电厂一电子配电柜间,结合美国核管理委员会(NRC)修正后的消防队响应计算模型,得到房间内部电缆的灭火失效概率的累积时间分布。结果表明,通过考虑火灾模型输入参数的不确定性得到的灭火失效概率的累积时间分布为指数分布。
In order to quantify the influence of the uncertainty of the input parameters of the fire model on the probability of fire extinguishing failure, the dynamic fire probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of nuclear power plants in our country is promoted. Based on the fire area model, Monte Carlo simulation and Markov chain, Calculation of Failure Probability in Dynamic Fire Extinguishing. Applying this method to an electronic distribution cabinet of a PWR nuclear power plant, combined with the NRC’s revised fire brigade response calculation model, the cumulative time distribution of the fire extinguishing failure probability of the cables inside the room is obtained. The results show that the cumulative time distribution of fire extinguishing failure probability obtained by considering the uncertainty of input parameters of fire model is exponential distribution.