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为了研究着陆冲出跑道事故的影响因素,在综合分析事故案例及已有研究成果的基础上,建立了着陆冲出跑道事故影响因素的指标体系,其中包括“人、机、环、管”为主的4个一级指标和14个二级指标,运用组合赋权法构建着陆冲出跑道事故影响因素的评估模型。采用该模型对近几年官方发布的完整的43起着陆冲出跑道事故调查报告进行评估,分别运用熵权法和层次分析法计算评价指标的客观及主观权重,之后利用组合赋权法得到组合权重并对评估结果进行对比分析。评估结果表明,引入组合赋权法可以得到着陆冲出跑道事故影响因素的科学的权重大小,对防范着陆冲出跑道事故的发生以及改善民航安全有一定的指导意义。
In order to study the impact factors of landing out of runway accidents, based on the comprehensive analysis of accident cases and existing research results, an index system of impact factors of landing out runway accidents is established, including “people, machines, rings, ”Based on the four first-level indicators and 14 second-level indicators, the use of combinatorial weight method to establish landing out runway accident factors affecting the evaluation model. This model is used to evaluate the complete report of 43 cases of landing runway incidents released by the government in recent years. The objective and subjective weights of evaluation indexes are respectively calculated by entropy method and analytic hierarchy process, and then combined with the combination weighting method Weights and comparative analysis of the evaluation results. The assessment results show that the introduction of combinatorial weighting method can get the weight of the scientific factors that affect the impact of landing and runway accidents, which is of guiding significance in preventing the occurrence of landing runway accidents and improving the civil aviation safety.