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本文以2006年初至2009年末我国货币政策变化频繁为背景,根据货币政策影响房价的渠道以及中国房地产市场的特点,考察了我国主要的三种货币政策工具,即广义货币供应量、房地产业贷款以及贷款实际利率三者对我国房价的作用。通过协整分析、脉冲响应模型的检验,得出广义货币供给量这一政策工具与房价的关系显著,在贷款中,房地产业个人消费贷款对房价的影响较大,而轻度的利率调整难以影响房价,且显著的政策调整也存在5个月左右的时滞。
Based on the frequent changes of monetary policy in China from the beginning of 2006 to the end of 2009, this paper examines the three major monetary policy instruments in our country, namely broad money supply, real estate loans and real estate loans, as well as the characteristics of China’s real estate market. The Effect of Loan Real Rate on China’s House Price. Through the cointegration analysis and the impulse response model test, it is concluded that there is a significant relationship between the policy instruments of the broad money supply and housing prices. In the loans, the personal consumer loans of the real estate industry have a greater impact on house prices, while the mild interest rate adjustment is difficult Affecting house prices, and significant policy adjustments also lag about 5 months.