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目的:探讨重症社区获得性肺炎（SCAP）高龄患者经气管插管机械通气（ETI-MV）拔管后序贯无创正压通气（NIPPV）的时机。方法:采用前瞻性队列研究方法，选择2017年7月至2019年8月新疆医科大学第一附属医院呼吸加强医疗病房（RICU）连续收治的年龄≥75岁、符合中华医学会呼吸病学分会《中国成人社区获得性肺炎诊断和治疗指南（2016年版）》诊断标准的SCAP高龄患者作为研究对象。患者入RICU后均以ETI-MV作为初始呼吸支持治疗手段；当达到肺部感染减轻窗口时拔除气管导管，然后序贯NIPPV治疗。记录患者性别、年龄、基础疾病以及入RICU时体温、心率（HR）、呼吸频率（RR）、氧合指数（PaOn 2/FiOn 2）和入RICU 24 h内急性生理学与慢性健康状况评分Ⅱ（APACHEⅡ）、英国胸科协会改良肺炎评分（CURB-65）、肺炎严重度指数（PSI）评分，同时记录患者ETI时间和次数、呼吸机相关性肺炎（VAP）和误吸发生情况、总机械通气（MV）时间、RICU住院时间、总住院时间和RICU预后。根据ETI时间将患者分为ETI≤7 d组和ETI>7 d组，比较两组患者临床资料；采用多因素Logistic回归分析筛选SCAP高龄患者ETI>7 d的危险因素；绘制受试者工作特征曲线（ROC），评估危险因素的预测价值。n 结果:共50例SCAP高龄患者纳入最终分析，其中ETI≤7 d组24例，ETI>7 d组26例。单因素分析结果显示，与ETI≤7 d组比较，ETI>7 d组患者合并脑血管疾病的比例及VAP、误吸发生率均明显升高〔46.2%（12/26）比16.7%（4/24），61.5%（16/26）比16.7%（4/24），69.2%（18/26）比25.0%（6/24），均n P7 d的独立危险因素〔VAP：优势比（n OR）＝4.852，95%可信区间（95%n CI）为1.076～21.877，n P＝0.040；误吸：n OR＝5.903，95%n CI为1.474～23.635，n P＝0.012〕。ROC曲线分析显示，VAP预测SCAP高龄患者ETI>7 d的ROC曲线下面积（AUC）为0.724，其敏感度为61.54%，特异度为83.33%，阳性预测值（PPV）为80.00%，阴性预测值（NPV）为66.67%，阳性似然比（PLR）为3.69，阴性似然比（NLR）为0.46，约登指数为0.45；误吸的AUC为0.721，其敏感度为69.23%，特异度为75.00%，PPV为75.00%，NPV为69.23%，PLR为2.77，NLR为0.41，约登指数为0.44。预后指标分析显示，与ETI≤7 d组相比，ETI>7 d组患者再插管率和RICU病死率均明显升高〔53.8%（14/26）比4.2%（1/24），38.5%（10/26）比12.5%（3/24），均n P 7 days group. Univariate analysis showed that compared with the patients with ETI ≤ 7 days, the incidences of concurrent cerebrovascular diseases [46.2% (12/26) vs. 16.7% (4/24)], VAP [61.5% (16/26) vs. 16.7% (4/24)] and aspiration [69.2% (18/26) vs. 25.0% (6/24)] were significantly increased in patients with ETI > 7 days (all n P 7 days in the aged SCAP patients [VAP: odds ratio ( n OR) = 4.852, 95% confidence interval (95%n CI) was 1.076-21.877, n P = 0.040; aspiration: n OR = 5.903, 95%n CI was 1.474-23.635, n P = 0.012]. ROC curve analysis showed that the area under ROC curve (AUC) of VAP for predicting ETI > 7 days in aged patients with SCAP was 0.724, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), positive likelihood ratio (PLR), negative likelihood ratio (NLR) and Youden index were 61.54%, 83.33%, 80.00%, 66.67%, 3.69, 0.46 and 0.45, respectively. Similarly, the AUC of aspiration was 0.721, the sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV, PLR, NLR and Youden index were 69.23%, 75.00%, 75.00%, 69.23%, 2.77, 0.41 and 0.44, respectively. Analysis of prognostic indicators showed that compared with patients with ETI ≤ 7 days, the reintubation rate and RICU mortality were significantly increased in patients with ETI > 7 days [53.8% (14/26) vs. 4.2% (1/24), 38.5% (10/26) vs. 12.5% (3/24), both n P 7 days had significantly prolonged total duration of MV, the length of RICU stay and total hospital stay as compared with the patients with ETI ≤ 7 days [total duration of MV (days): 23.8±11.8 vs. 11.3±3.1, length of RICU stay (days): 30.6±14.1 vs. 16.0±5.1, total length of hospital stay (days): 33.0±14.9 vs. 20.2±6.1, all n P < 0.01].n Conclusions:Sequential NIPPV performed immediately following extubation within 7 days in the aged SCAP patients might reduce the mortality and shorten the duration of MV. The prolonged ETI duration because of the VAP or aspiration would lead to a reduced function of sequential NIPPV and an increased mortality of the aged patients with SCAP.