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政府的利率、房贷、税费和其它配套政策与居民的需求都能影响房价,前者通过政策导向引导房价长期的走势,后者通过改变供求关系影响房价短期的涨跌,政府政策、居民需求和房价走势关系密切。本文首先分析当前政府救市背景、目的和效果,然后结合有效需求是否释放来分析房价走势,最后结合上海房地产市场的实际情况来预测未来房价走势,并得出未来房价走势主要取决于政策效应是否延续和有效需求是否释放之结论。
Government interest rates, mortgages, taxes and other supporting policies and the needs of residents can affect housing prices, the former guide the long-term trend of housing prices through policy guidance, the latter by changing the relationship between supply and demand short-term changes in housing prices, government policies, residents’ needs and House prices are closely related. This paper first analyzes the current government rescue the background, purpose and effect, and then whether the effective demand is released to analyze the trend of housing prices, the final real estate market in Shanghai to predict the future real estate prices trend and come to the future price trend depends mainly on whether the continuation of the policy effect And whether the effective demand is released.