论文部分内容阅读
预计今后五年国内聚氯乙烯年需求增长速度约为14%,每年新增需求在70万吨以上。而开征反倾销税后,额外关税阻止了约有50多万吨的PVC/年进入中国市场,这一空缺必须通过国内扩大产量来弥补。在国内电力、煤炭持续紧张以及国际市场油价持续高位的情况下,PVC生产原料价格将难以回落,04年国内PVC价格将在高位震荡。受益于价格上涨和高速的市场成长机会,PVC行业盈利能力明显增强,相关上市公司的动态市盈率将继续大幅下降,投资机会已经来临。
It is estimated that in the next five years, the annual demand for polyvinyl chloride in China will increase by about 14%, and the annual new demand will be over 700,000 tons. After the introduction of anti-dumping duties, the additional tariffs prevented more than 500,000 tons of PVC/year from entering the Chinese market. This vacancy must be compensated by the expansion of domestic production. With domestic electricity and coal continuing to be tight and oil prices in the international market continuing to be high, PVC raw material prices will be difficult to fall back. In 2004, domestic PVC prices will fluctuate at high levels. Benefiting from price increases and high-speed market growth opportunities, the profitability of the PVC industry has increased significantly, and the dynamic price-to-earnings ratio of related listed companies will continue to drop substantially, and investment opportunities have already come.