1 非线性科学的发展对传统滑坡预报学的冲击 滑坡时间预报是一个世界性的科学难题。虽然许多科学家为此做了艰辛的努力,也取得过象成功的新滩滑坡预报这样令人鼓舞的成就,但更多的是失败的惨痛教训。经过多次教训,全世界大多数滑坡学家都认识到,解决滑坡预报这一科学难题的根本出路在于从经验预报转变为物理预报。 1 The development of nonlinear science The impact of traditional landslide prediction Landslide time forecast is a worldwide scientific problem. Although many scientists have made arduous efforts to this end and have achieved encouraging results such as the successful Xintang landslide prediction, they are more bitter lessons of failure. After many lessons, most landslide scientists in the world have come to realize that the fundamental way to solve the scientific problem of landslide prediction lies in changing from empirical prediction to physical prediction.