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华盛顿的战略和预算评估中心新近透露了四个关于未来战争的报告。该中心的主任撰写了第一个报告:“2016年的空军”。现摘要如下: 美国空军意识到自己已处于一个新时代,这个时代的特点是近期威胁急剧减少,而长远计划的制定和投资安排等方面的不确定性却明显增加。今天,世界上受战争威胁的地方比冷战时期少多了,但是,在今后10～20年内,危及国家安全的事件几乎可以肯定会大大增加。不确定性增加的原因主要是技术方面的飞速发展会影响这一时期的军事变革。空军对这种事态的响应能力受制于国防预算的削减和使机构适应能力不佳的文化环境。
Washington’s Center for Strategic and Budget Assessment recently revealed four reports of future wars. The center’s director wrote the first report: “2016 Air Forces.” The summary is as follows: The U.S. Air Force realizes that it is in a new era characterized by a sharp reduction in the recent threats and a marked increase in the uncertainty of the long-term planning and investment arrangements. Today, the world is less threatened by war than the cold war era, but events that endanger national security will almost certainly increase substantially over the next 10 to 20 years. The main reason for the increase in uncertainty is the rapid development of technology that will affect the military changes during this period. The Air Force’s ability to respond to such events is constrained by a reduction in defense budgets and a cultural environment that adapts institutions to poor capacities.