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本文首先考察了我国近几年从积极财政政策转向稳健财政政策的财政收支调整或财政稳固方式,进而利用面板数据模型探究了积极财政政策转向稳健财政政策对宏观经济的影响,最后利用增长核算法探讨了我国应采取何种方式的稳健财政政策以确保其具有可持续性。分析表明,由于我国财政收入政策存在显著的“非凯恩斯效应”,因此现阶段实施的以增收为主要方式的稳健财政政策没有对宏观经济产生明显的负面影响;我国财政政策成功转型以及稳健财政政策具有可持续性的关键在于科学合理地选择财政稳固方式,即应以增加财政收入为主,且尽量保持财政收支同步增长。
This dissertation first examines the fiscal revenue and expenditure adjustment or fiscal stabilization in recent years from the active fiscal policy to the steady fiscal policy, and then uses panel data model to explore the impact of the positive fiscal policy on the macroeconomic by the steady fiscal policy. Finally, The law explores the ways in which our country should adopt sound financial policies to ensure its sustainability. The analysis shows that due to the significant “non-Keynesian effect” of China’s fiscal revenue policy, the steady fiscal policy implemented mainly by increasing income at the present stage has no obvious negative impact on the macro-economy; the successful transformation of China’s fiscal policy and the steady fiscal policy The key to sustainability lies in the scientific and reasonable choice of a financially stable way, which means that the government should increase its revenue mainly while maintaining the simultaneous growth of revenue and expenditure.