论文部分内容阅读
本文利用1997年到2009年全国以及各地区的房地产面板数据,借鉴蛛网模型的相关理论,构建供给与需求的联立方程,选择固定效应IV估计法拟合面板联立方程模型,对普通商品住房供求的影响因素及其稳定性进行了实证研究。结果表明,我国的普通商品住房市场处于不稳定状态,普通商品住房当期及滞后期的价格、城镇人均可支配收入、城镇就业人口、土地购置面积、经济适用房、别墅的供求状况等因素都对普通商品住房的供求变化产生较为显著的影响。
Based on the real estate panel data of China and other regions from 1997 to 2009, this paper constructs the simultaneous equations of supply and demand by using the theories of cobweb model, selects fixed-effect IV estimation method to fit the simultaneous equations of panel model, The influential factors of supply and demand and their stability are studied empirically. The results show that the general commodity housing market in our country is in an unstable state. The prices of ordinary commercial housing in the current and post-lag period, the per capita disposable income in urban areas, the urban employment population, the purchase area of land, affordable housing and the demand and supply of villas The changes in the supply and demand of ordinary commodity housing have a more significant impact.