在能源问题观察家中,看来正在形成一个共同的看法,即在未来的十年内,或许更早就在今后几年内,世界正在走向严重的原油短缺。近几个月以来,发表了一系列官方的和私人的预测,提出警告说:如果不大规模地加强能源保护,世界石油的需求将接近石油生产能力,到八十年代中期的某个时候,将超过生产能力。这些报道,论点可以概括为以下几点:尽管主要工业化国家和石油进口国家经济增长速度有所减低, Among energy observers, there appears to be a common perception that the world is heading for a serious shortage of crude oil in the coming decade, perhaps even sooner than in the coming years. In recent months, a series of official and private projections have been issued warning that, unless the scale of energy conservation is strengthened, world oil demand will approach oil production capacity. By sometime in the mid-1980s, Will exceed the production capacity. These reports and arguments can be summarized as follows: Although the economic growth rate of major industrialized countries and oil-importing countries has been somewhat reduced,