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本文利用改革开放以来贵州省财政支出与经济增长的相关统计数据,对贵州省财政支出规模及结构与经济增长的关系进行了实证分析。规模分析方面,利用Barro的财政支出自然效率条件和三部门生产函数进行估计,得出财政支出的最优规模为19.6498%;并得出财政支出规模是经济增长的Granger原因,反之则不成立。结构分析方面,在单位根和协整检验的基础上建立VAR模型进行脉冲响应函数分析和方差分解,得出财政支出各项目对经济增长的短期、长期影响和贡献度,并提出贵州省财政支出规模及结构进一步优化的建议。
This paper makes use of the relevant statistical data about the fiscal expenditure and economic growth in Guizhou Province since the reform and opening up, and makes an empirical analysis of the relationship between the scale and structure of fiscal expenditure and the economic growth in Guizhou Province. On the aspect of scale analysis, using Barro’s natural efficiency of fiscal expenditure and the three-sector production function to estimate, the optimal scale of fiscal expenditure is 19.6498%. And it is concluded that the scale of fiscal expenditure is the Granger cause of economic growth and vice versa. In the aspect of structural analysis, based on unit root test and cointegration test, VAR model is established to analyze impulse response function and variance decomposition, and the short-term and long-term effects and contributions of each item of fiscal expenditure to economic growth are obtained. Finally, the fiscal expenditure Size and structure to further optimize the proposal.