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为减少温室气体排放,一些发达国家和地区已经或即将实施温室气体排放权交易机制和可再生能源发展机制。这2种机制的实施会给电力市场的运营带来一些新问题,值得认真研究。在此背景下,提出了采用基于智能代理的市场仿真方法来描绘在这种新的环境下发电公司的报价博弈过程,进而分析这2种机制的实施对电力市场运营的影响。采用了模仿者动态算法(replicator dynamics algorithm)来模拟智能体(发电公司)追求利润最大化的行为,并给出了基于电力市场仿真结果衡量其运营特征的指标。最后,用算例对所提出的方法进行了说明,并通过对电力市场运营指标的比较分析了这2种机制对电力市场运营的影响。
In order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, some developed countries and regions have already implemented or will soon implement the greenhouse gas trading mechanism and the renewable energy development mechanism. The implementation of these two mechanisms will bring some new problems to the operation of the electricity market and deserve serious study. Against this background, this paper proposes a method based on intelligent agent market simulation to describe the bidding game process of power generation companies in this new environment, and then analyzes the impact of these two mechanisms on the operation of power market. The replicator dynamics algorithm is used to simulate the pursuit of profit maximization by an agent (power generation company), and an indicator is given to measure its operational characteristics based on the power market simulation results. Finally, an example is given to illustrate the proposed method, and the impact of these two mechanisms on the operation of the electricity market is analyzed by comparing the indicators of the electricity market operation.