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技术集成理论的产生和可供选择的先进制造技术(AMT)资源的增多为我国企业进行自主创新和技术跨越提供了客观条件,同时技术市场的不断多元化发展也使技术选择成为亟待解决的问题.针对目前AMT选择方法的不完善,利用二元离散Logit选择原理,构建一种多项AMT选择的二元带趋势面板数据选择模型,给出了模型的随机效用结构,同时给出并分析效用模型随机趋势扰动项的概率分布.讨论了随机效用模型的估计问题,给出并证明消除效用模型随机意外项和随机扰动项的两个定理,进一步给出模型面板数据处理的方法,将模型中的随机偏好变量进行模糊处理,最终将一个多期面板数据模型转化成一个可以估计的截面数据模型,为多项技术集成AMT资源的选择提供理论工具.最后通过一个算例,验证了理论方法的有效性和可行性.
The emergence of technology integration theory and the availability of alternative AMT resources have provided objective conditions for Chinese enterprises to carry out independent innovation and technological leapfrogging. At the same time, the diversification of technological markets has also made technological choices an urgent solution Aiming at the current imperfect AMT selection method, a binary selection model of multiple trend data selection based on DTT is constructed by using binary discrete Logit selection principle. The random utility structure of the model is given and its utility is given and analyzed The probabilistic distribution of the perturbation term of the random trend of the model is discussed.The estimation of the stochastic utility model is discussed.The two theorems of the stochastic accidental item and the stochastic perturbation term of the utility model are given and proved.Finally, The random preference variables are obfuscated, finally a multi-period panel data model is transformed into an estimated cross-section data model, which provides a theoretical tool for the selection of a number of technologies to integrate AMT resources.Finally, an example is given to verify that the theoretical method Validity and feasibility.