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本文提出适度政府规模福利效应新假说,利用2000—2012年中国省际动态面板数据和系统广义矩估计(SYS-GMM)进行实证检验。结果发现:①适度政府规模有利于经济增长和社会福利增进,政府规模存在三种效应,当政府规模较小时,增长效应占主导,当政府规模较大时,挤出效应占主导,当政府规模适度时,福利效应占主导;②政府规模对社会福利呈“倒U型”影响,短期扩张有利于经济发展和社会福利提高,但长期膨胀则有损于经济效率和社会公平,中国适度政府规模在0.2左右;③政府规模对社会福利的影响作用大于政府干预作用,由于中国各省份发展条件和发展水平存在显著差异,要防止地方政府规模过分偏离0.2的适度水平而造成地方政府债务规模膨胀、过多挤占市场和宏观经济不稳定。本文为近年来中国各级政府规模的扩张偏向提出了警示与启示。
This paper proposes a new hypothesis of appropriate government-scale welfare effects and conducts empirical tests by using China’s provincial dynamic panel data and system generalized moment estimation (SYS-GMM) from 2000 to 2012. The results show that: (1) The moderate government scale is favorable to economic growth and social welfare. There are three kinds of government scale effects. When the government scale is small, the growth effect dominates. When the government scale is larger, the crowding-out effect dominates. When the government scale Moderate effect on welfare; ② government scale is “inverted U-shaped” to social welfare, short-term expansion is conducive to economic development and social welfare improvement, but long-term expansion is detrimental to economic efficiency and social equity, moderate in China The size of the government is about 0.2; ③The impact of government size on social welfare is greater than the role of government intervention. Due to the significant differences in the conditions of development and level of development in various provinces in China, it is necessary to prevent the size of local governments from deviating excessively from the appropriate level of 0.2, resulting in the scale of local government debt Expansion, over-crowding markets and macroeconomic instability. This article puts forward the warning and enlightenment for the expansion of the scale of Chinese government at various levels in recent years.