短缺经济时代的结束及我国实现经济“软着陆”以后,我国经济开始陷入了一个生产相对过剩、经济增长趋缓、有效需求不足的境地。1998年,面对国际金融动荡和国内严重洪涝灾害,这一矛盾变得突出。在中央采取了一系列扩大内需、刺激经济的政策以后,我国经济增长率勉强达到了7.8%。为此,1998年度召开的中央经济工作会议明确指出“要把促进消费需求的增长作为拉动经济增长的一项重大举措”。一段时期以来,学术界就如何进一步启动市场,促进经济增长,展开了激烈的讨论,这些观点归纳起来,不外乎以下几种:一是“继续下滑有益论”;二是有效供给不足论;三是消费结构断层论。这些观点从不同的侧面探寻了我国经济运行中存在的问题,都有其一定的合理性和理论依据。从它们的分析中,笔者认为,有一 After the end of the shortage economy era and the realization of the “soft landing” of our economy, our economy started to fall into a situation where the relative surplus of production, economic growth slowed down and effective demand was insufficient. In 1998, in the face of international financial turmoil and severe domestic floods, this contradiction has become prominent. After the Central Government adopted a series of policies to expand domestic demand and stimulate the economy, its economic growth rate barely reached 7.8%. To this end, the 1998 Central Economic Work Conference clearly pointed out that “we must take the promotion of consumer demand growth as a major move to boost economic growth.” Since a certain period of time, academic circles have conducted heated discussions on how to further launch the market and promote economic growth. These views can be summed up in the following ways: First, “continue to benefit”; second, insufficient effective supply On the third is the consumption structure fault theory. These views have explored the problems existing in the economic operation of our country from different aspects and have their own rationality and theoretical basis. From their analysis, I believe that there is one