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过度自信是指人们在进行评价时产生偏离校准,在比较判断时出现“优于常人”效应,在做决策时发生控制错觉和过度乐观的心理从而引发相应行为的一种认知偏差。信息差异理论是解释过度自信现象的一种新理论。该文章首先从偏离校准、“优于常人”效应、控制错觉和过度乐观三个方面介绍了过度自信的定义,然后从模型建立、模型解释和影响因素三个方面对过度自信的信息差异理论进行解释,最后总结了过度自信的研究意义和研究前景。
Overconfidence refers to a cognitive bias that causes deviation in the process of evaluation when people make deviations from their calibrations, “superior to ordinary people” when making judgments, and control delusions and excessive optimism in making decisions. The theory of information disparity is a new theory to explain the phenomenon of overconfidence. Firstly, this article introduces the definition of overconfidence from the aspects of deviation calibration, superiority to ordinary people, illusion of control and over-optimism. Then it introduces the definition of overconfidence from three aspects: model establishment, model explanation and influencing factors, Theory, and finally summarizes the research significance and research prospect of overconfidence.