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制定安全生产大系统宏观管理与事故控制战略方针是实现系统本质安全化的根本措施之一,而科学化的安全管理必须依靠对系统事故控制能力和水平的数量化评价方法。本文基于系统论、信息论和控制论思想,综合运用安全系统工程原理、灰色系统理论和安全评价技术,以系统行为发展态势、波动度和当前事故水平构成评价目标树,并运用加权归一化方法,从宏观上对安全生产大系统事故控制能力和水平进行评价,以期从理论上解决安全管理部门面临棘手的数量化科学管理与宏观调控、信息决策与综合评估的问题,探索提高系统安全品质特性的途径。
To formulate the strategic macro-control and accident control strategy for a large-scale production safety system is one of the fundamental measures to realize the intrinsic safety of the system. Scientific and scientific safety management must rely on the quantitative evaluation of the capacity and level of systematic accident control. Based on the theories of system theory, information theory and cybernetics, this dissertation makes use of the principles of safety system engineering, gray system theory and safety evaluation technology to construct the evaluation target tree based on the system behavior development trend, volatility and current accident level. By using weighted normalization method , Macroscopically evaluates the control ability and level of large-scale production safety accidents in order to theoretically solve the problems that the safety management departments are faced with the tricky quantitative scientific management and macro-control, information decision-making and comprehensive assessment, and to explore ways to improve the safety and quality characteristics of the system Way.