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通过分析面板堆石坝沉降和Verhulst模型的特征发现,堆石体沉降随时间的变化曲线与Verhulst模型曲线形似。但是,Verhulst模型在预测沉降时,前期预测值与实测值差距较大且预测最终沉降量偏小。为了克服这一不足,提出采用修正的Verhulst模型预测堆石体的沉降,预测结果表明,修正模型可有效提高沉降预测精度,预测面板堆石坝最终的最大沉降量更为合理。
By analyzing the characteristics of the rockfill dam settlement and Verhulst model, it is found that the curve of rockfill settlement with time is similar to the curve of Verhulst model. However, when the Verhulst model predicts settlement, the difference between the predicted value and the measured value is large and the predicted final settlement is small. In order to overcome this problem, a modified Verhulst model is proposed to predict the settlement of the rockfill body. The prediction results show that the revised model can effectively improve the accuracy of the settlement prediction and predict the ultimate settlement of the rockfill dam more reasonable.