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改革开放至今,我国经济飞速发展的同时,对于能源的消耗也不断增加,而我国消耗能源的主要为煤炭,这不仅使得我国能源结构显得单一,更为重要的是在煤炭燃烧过程中排放的二氧化碳、二氧化硫等污染物所导致的环境问题日益凸显。本文将碳排放因素考虑进能源消费结构优化之中,并运用多目标规划方法构建了以能源消费成本最小和二氧化碳排放最小为目标的函数,二氧化碳排放、能源消费总量、各种能源消费比例为约束的低碳目标约束下我国能源消费结构优化模型,并结合情景分析方法对2020年各地区的二氧化碳排放、能源消费总量、各种能源消费比例的阀值进行设定,分析了2020年我国各地区能源消费结构变化的方向。然后对于我国中长期的二氧化碳排放、能源消费总量、各种能源消费比例的阀值进行设定,分析了低碳情景下我国未来能源消费结构的变化方向。
Since the reform and opening up to the present day, China’s economy has developed rapidly. At the same time, its consumption of energy has also increased. However, China’s consumption of energy is dominated by coal. This not only makes our country’s energy structure appear single, but more importantly, it emits carbon dioxide , Sulfur dioxide and other pollutants caused by the environmental issues have become increasingly prominent. In this paper, carbon emission factors into the energy consumption structure optimization, and the use of multi-objective programming approach to build a minimum cost of energy consumption and minimum carbon dioxide emissions as the goal of a function of carbon dioxide emissions, total energy consumption, various energy consumption ratio Constraints of the low-carbon target constraints China’s energy consumption structure optimization model, combined with scenario analysis methods of various regions in 2020 carbon dioxide emissions, total energy consumption, the proportion of various energy consumption threshold set, analyzed in 2020 China The direction of changes in the structure of energy consumption in various regions. Then we set the threshold of China’s medium and long term carbon dioxide emissions, total energy consumption, and various energy consumption ratios, and analyze the future direction of China’s energy consumption structure under the low-carbon scenario.