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目的利用控制图法优选出江阴市手足口病和其他感染性腹泻病的最佳预警界值。方法依据江阴市2008—2013年手足口病和其它感染性腹泻病的周发病数,利用控制图法来建立预警模型。综合考虑灵敏度、特异度、阳性预测值、约登指数以及受试者工作特征曲线(ROC),优选出该地区此两种传染病合适的预警界值。结果江阴市手足口病的预警界值宜定为P_(90),其他感染性腹泻病的预警界值宜定为P_(85)。结论区县级单位可根据当地传染病的发病特点来优选合适的预警界值,进而提升预警系统的工作效率。
Objective To select the best precautionary boundary of HFMD and other infectious diarrheal diseases in Jiangyin by using the control chart method. Methods According to the weekly incidence of HFMD and other infectious diarrhea from 2008 to 2013 in Jiangyin City, the early warning model was established by using the control chart method. Considering the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, Youden index and receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), the suitable precautionary thresholds for both infectious diseases in this area were optimized. Results The precautionary threshold of hand-foot-mouth disease in Jiangyin should be set as P_ (90), and the precautionary threshold of other infectious diarrhea should be P_ (85). Conclusion The district-level units can optimize the pre-warning threshold value according to the characteristics of the local infectious disease and improve the working efficiency of the early-warning system.