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随着新冠疫情在全球范围内蔓延，许多报道都将COVID-19大流行描述为“黑天鹅”（black swan）事件。
但有语言学家指出，这是一种误用，对这场危机的恰当比喻应为“灰犀牛”（grey rhino）。
黑天鹅和灰犀牛分别指什么，又有什么区别呢？
黑天鹅Black swan
比喻一种极其罕见的、未曾预见的、造成巨大影响的事件。A metaphor for an extremely rare event that is unforeseen and has an enormous impact.“黑天鹅”这一术语是美国经济学家纳西姆·尼古拉斯·塔勒布在2001年創造的。早在公元2世纪，古罗马诗人朱文诺（Juvenal）就曾用黑天鹅比喻罕见的鸟儿："A rare bird in the lands and very much like a black swan."
在发现澳大利亚的黑天鹅之前，欧洲人认为天鹅都是白色的。“黑天鹅”曾经是欧洲人言谈与写作中的惯用语，用来指不可能存在的事物，但这个不可动摇的信念随着第一只黑天鹅的出现而崩溃。
受此启发，塔勒布将“黑天鹅”一词应用于9·11袭击、美国的次贷危机和互联网的发展等离奇事件。
It was coined by economist Nassim Nicholas Taleb in 2001— inspired by a 2nd-century Roman poet who presumed that such birds didn’t exist — and has been applied to such disparate outliers as the 9/11 attacks and the development of the internet.
黑天鹅寓意着不可预测的重大稀有事件，意料之外，却又改变一切。
灰犀牛Grey rhino
比喻发生概率极大，却被忽视的、冲击力极强的风险。A metaphor for highly probable but neglected threats that have an enormous impact.“灰犀牛”是政策分析师米歇尔·渥克在2012年希腊金融危机后发明的术语。It was coined by Michele Wucker， a policy analyst who came up with the term after the 2012 Greek financial crisis.她提出，灰犀牛不是随机的突发事件，而是一系列预警和明显征兆（a series of warnings and visible evidence）之后爆发出来的问题。灰犀牛袭击时，极具爆发力，且不可阻挡（its power is explosive and unstoppable）。
灰犀牛体型笨重、反应迟缓，你能看见它在远处，却毫不在意，一旦它向你狂奔而来，定会让你猝不及防，直接被扑倒在地。
它并不神秘，却更危险。
因此，可以总结认为灰犀牛是与黑天鹅互补的概念。一个指太过于常见以至于人们习以为常的风险；一个指极其罕见的、出乎人们意料的风险。
而此次疫情，曾有多种迹象预示其暴发，正如一头两吨重的犀牛已经把牛角对准人类。一经暴发便在世界范围内蔓延，一发不可收拾。
这一用法也得到“灰犀牛”创造者渥克本人的支持，她说：“Given what we know about pandemics and their increasing likelihood， outbreaks are highly probable and high impact. I coined the term ‘grey rhino’ for exactly such events： obvious， visible， coming right at you， with large potential impact and highly probable consequences.”
“鉴于我们对大流行病的了解，及其发生概率的增加，疫情暴发的可能性很大，影响也很大。我创造‘灰犀牛’这个词，正是用来形容这类事件：明显的、可见的、直冲你而来的，有着潜在的巨大影响力，且很有可能造成严重的后果。”
热词 HOT WORDS
航班熔断机制"circuit breaker" mechanism for airlines
The Civil Aviation Administration of China， along with multiple departments including the National Health Commission and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs， will introduce a "reward" and "circuit breaker" mechanism for airlines based on passenger nucleic acid test results upon arrival in order to contain the number of imported cases of COVID-19.
民航局与国家卫健委以及外交部等多部门将推出以落地后乘客核酸检测结果为依据的航班奖励和熔断机制，以控制新冠肺炎输入病例。
As an incentive， carriers will be allowed to increase the number of international flights to two per week on one route if the number of passengers who have a positive nucleic acid test on their flights stands at zero for three consecutive weeks， according to the administration. 奖励措施是指航空公司同一航线航班，入境后核酸检测结果为阳性的旅客人数连续3周为零的，可在航线经营许可规定的航班量范围内增加每周1班，达到每周2班。
The airline must suspend the operation of the route for one week if the number of passengers who test positive for the coronavirus reaches five. If the number exceeds 10， the airline will suspend the flights for four weeks， it said.
航空公司同一航線航班，入境后核酸检测结果为阳性的旅客人数达到5个的，暂停该公司该航线运行1周；达到10个的，暂停该公司该航线运行4周。
抗疫特别国债special government bonds for covid-19 control
The Ministry of Finance will issue two batches of fixed-rate special bonds， including 50 billion yuan of five-year bonds and 50 billion yuan of seven-year bonds. Both will be listed and traded on June 23， 2020.
在这两期特别国债中，一期为5年期固定利率附息债，二期为7年期固定利率附息债。两期国债竞争性招标面值总额均为500亿元，6月23日起上市交易。
The deficit-to-GDP ratio this year is projected at more than 3.6 percent， with a deficit increase of one trillion yuan over last year. On top of this， one trillion yuan of government bonds for covid-19 control will also be issued. These are extraordinary measures for an unusual time.
今年赤字率拟按3.6%以上安排，财政赤字规模比去年增加1万亿元，同时发行1万亿元抗疫特别国债。这是特殊时期的特殊举措。
The aforementioned two trillion yuan will be transferred in full to local governments； a special transfer payment mechanism will be set up to ensure that funds go straight to prefecture and county governments and directly benefit businesses and people. These funds should be primarily used to ensure employment， meet basic living needs， and protect market entities. This includes giving support to cut taxes and fees， reduce rents and interest on loans， and increase consumption and investment. It is important to stress that government funds are public in nature and that no such funds are allowed to be withheld or diverted for non-designated uses.
上述2万亿元全部转给地方，建立特殊转移支付机制，资金直达市县基层、直接惠企利民，主要用于保就业、保基本民生、保市场主体，包括支持减税降费、减租降息、扩大消费和投资等，强化公共财政属性，决不允许截留挪用。
北斗卫星导航系统Beidou Navigation Satellite System
The launch marked the completion of the in-orbit construction of the BeiDou Navigation Satellite System （BDS） ， the country’s largest space-based system and one of four global navigation networks， along with the United States’ GPS， Russia’s GLONASS and the European Union’s Galileo.
此次发射标志着北斗全球卫星导航系统在轨部署完成，北斗系统是我国最大的空间导航系统，也是四个全球导航系统之一，其他三个分别为美国全球定位系统、俄罗斯格洛纳斯以及欧盟伽利略。
By now， 59 satellites， including the first four experimental ones， have been launched from Xichang on Long March 3Bs， some having since been put into retirement.
到目前为止，西昌卫星发射中心通过长征三号乙运载火箭共发射了59颗北斗卫星，其中包括四颗试验卫星，有些卫星已经退役。
There are 30 third-generation Beidou satellites in three types of orbit — 24 in medium-Earth orbits， three in inclined geosynchronous satellite orbits and three in geostationary orbits.
目前，在轨北斗三号卫星共有30颗，包括24颗中圆地球轨道卫星、3颗倾斜地球同步轨道卫星和3颗地球静止轨道卫星。
但有语言学家指出，这是一种误用，对这场危机的恰当比喻应为“灰犀牛”（grey rhino）。
黑天鹅和灰犀牛分别指什么，又有什么区别呢？
黑天鹅Black swan
比喻一种极其罕见的、未曾预见的、造成巨大影响的事件。A metaphor for an extremely rare event that is unforeseen and has an enormous impact.“黑天鹅”这一术语是美国经济学家纳西姆·尼古拉斯·塔勒布在2001年創造的。早在公元2世纪，古罗马诗人朱文诺（Juvenal）就曾用黑天鹅比喻罕见的鸟儿："A rare bird in the lands and very much like a black swan."
在发现澳大利亚的黑天鹅之前，欧洲人认为天鹅都是白色的。“黑天鹅”曾经是欧洲人言谈与写作中的惯用语，用来指不可能存在的事物，但这个不可动摇的信念随着第一只黑天鹅的出现而崩溃。
受此启发，塔勒布将“黑天鹅”一词应用于9·11袭击、美国的次贷危机和互联网的发展等离奇事件。
It was coined by economist Nassim Nicholas Taleb in 2001— inspired by a 2nd-century Roman poet who presumed that such birds didn’t exist — and has been applied to such disparate outliers as the 9/11 attacks and the development of the internet.
黑天鹅寓意着不可预测的重大稀有事件，意料之外，却又改变一切。
灰犀牛Grey rhino
比喻发生概率极大，却被忽视的、冲击力极强的风险。A metaphor for highly probable but neglected threats that have an enormous impact.“灰犀牛”是政策分析师米歇尔·渥克在2012年希腊金融危机后发明的术语。It was coined by Michele Wucker， a policy analyst who came up with the term after the 2012 Greek financial crisis.她提出，灰犀牛不是随机的突发事件，而是一系列预警和明显征兆（a series of warnings and visible evidence）之后爆发出来的问题。灰犀牛袭击时，极具爆发力，且不可阻挡（its power is explosive and unstoppable）。
灰犀牛体型笨重、反应迟缓，你能看见它在远处，却毫不在意，一旦它向你狂奔而来，定会让你猝不及防，直接被扑倒在地。
它并不神秘，却更危险。
因此，可以总结认为灰犀牛是与黑天鹅互补的概念。一个指太过于常见以至于人们习以为常的风险；一个指极其罕见的、出乎人们意料的风险。
而此次疫情，曾有多种迹象预示其暴发，正如一头两吨重的犀牛已经把牛角对准人类。一经暴发便在世界范围内蔓延，一发不可收拾。
这一用法也得到“灰犀牛”创造者渥克本人的支持，她说：“Given what we know about pandemics and their increasing likelihood， outbreaks are highly probable and high impact. I coined the term ‘grey rhino’ for exactly such events： obvious， visible， coming right at you， with large potential impact and highly probable consequences.”
“鉴于我们对大流行病的了解，及其发生概率的增加，疫情暴发的可能性很大，影响也很大。我创造‘灰犀牛’这个词，正是用来形容这类事件：明显的、可见的、直冲你而来的，有着潜在的巨大影响力，且很有可能造成严重的后果。”
热词 HOT WORDS
航班熔断机制"circuit breaker" mechanism for airlines
The Civil Aviation Administration of China， along with multiple departments including the National Health Commission and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs， will introduce a "reward" and "circuit breaker" mechanism for airlines based on passenger nucleic acid test results upon arrival in order to contain the number of imported cases of COVID-19.
民航局与国家卫健委以及外交部等多部门将推出以落地后乘客核酸检测结果为依据的航班奖励和熔断机制，以控制新冠肺炎输入病例。
As an incentive， carriers will be allowed to increase the number of international flights to two per week on one route if the number of passengers who have a positive nucleic acid test on their flights stands at zero for three consecutive weeks， according to the administration. 奖励措施是指航空公司同一航线航班，入境后核酸检测结果为阳性的旅客人数连续3周为零的，可在航线经营许可规定的航班量范围内增加每周1班，达到每周2班。
The airline must suspend the operation of the route for one week if the number of passengers who test positive for the coronavirus reaches five. If the number exceeds 10， the airline will suspend the flights for four weeks， it said.
航空公司同一航線航班，入境后核酸检测结果为阳性的旅客人数达到5个的，暂停该公司该航线运行1周；达到10个的，暂停该公司该航线运行4周。
抗疫特别国债special government bonds for covid-19 control
The Ministry of Finance will issue two batches of fixed-rate special bonds， including 50 billion yuan of five-year bonds and 50 billion yuan of seven-year bonds. Both will be listed and traded on June 23， 2020.
在这两期特别国债中，一期为5年期固定利率附息债，二期为7年期固定利率附息债。两期国债竞争性招标面值总额均为500亿元，6月23日起上市交易。
The deficit-to-GDP ratio this year is projected at more than 3.6 percent， with a deficit increase of one trillion yuan over last year. On top of this， one trillion yuan of government bonds for covid-19 control will also be issued. These are extraordinary measures for an unusual time.
今年赤字率拟按3.6%以上安排，财政赤字规模比去年增加1万亿元，同时发行1万亿元抗疫特别国债。这是特殊时期的特殊举措。
The aforementioned two trillion yuan will be transferred in full to local governments； a special transfer payment mechanism will be set up to ensure that funds go straight to prefecture and county governments and directly benefit businesses and people. These funds should be primarily used to ensure employment， meet basic living needs， and protect market entities. This includes giving support to cut taxes and fees， reduce rents and interest on loans， and increase consumption and investment. It is important to stress that government funds are public in nature and that no such funds are allowed to be withheld or diverted for non-designated uses.
上述2万亿元全部转给地方，建立特殊转移支付机制，资金直达市县基层、直接惠企利民，主要用于保就业、保基本民生、保市场主体，包括支持减税降费、减租降息、扩大消费和投资等，强化公共财政属性，决不允许截留挪用。
北斗卫星导航系统Beidou Navigation Satellite System
The launch marked the completion of the in-orbit construction of the BeiDou Navigation Satellite System （BDS） ， the country’s largest space-based system and one of four global navigation networks， along with the United States’ GPS， Russia’s GLONASS and the European Union’s Galileo.
此次发射标志着北斗全球卫星导航系统在轨部署完成，北斗系统是我国最大的空间导航系统，也是四个全球导航系统之一，其他三个分别为美国全球定位系统、俄罗斯格洛纳斯以及欧盟伽利略。
By now， 59 satellites， including the first four experimental ones， have been launched from Xichang on Long March 3Bs， some having since been put into retirement.
到目前为止，西昌卫星发射中心通过长征三号乙运载火箭共发射了59颗北斗卫星，其中包括四颗试验卫星，有些卫星已经退役。
There are 30 third-generation Beidou satellites in three types of orbit — 24 in medium-Earth orbits， three in inclined geosynchronous satellite orbits and three in geostationary orbits.
目前，在轨北斗三号卫星共有30颗，包括24颗中圆地球轨道卫星、3颗倾斜地球同步轨道卫星和3颗地球静止轨道卫星。