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2012年生猪养殖结束高盈利期,进入微利状态,猪价走势呈现两头高中间低的“马鞍形”。2012年低迷猪价,高成本、低盈利、高疫情、高风险虽如影随形,但这种困局并未真正打破养殖户的底线,规模化养殖户依然积极扩大母猪饲养规模来降低风险和成本,去库存化下降缓慢,预示生猪下行周期或将延长。预计,2013年猪价整体或将存在下行空间,维持在12~16元/kg;仔猪价格也将在30元/kg以下水平运行;养猪成本高企局面稍有缓解,但依然呈现常态化,生猪出栏成本价将维持在13~14.2元/kg,2013年出栏生猪盈利能力基本维持在100元/头左右;根据2012年养殖母猪成本核算,2013年出售的仔猪成本价将维持在25~26元/kg,因此2013年出售仔猪盈利承压,亏损风险较大。
Pig farming in 2012 ended high-profit period, into a marginal state, the price of pork showed two high middle low “saddle-shaped.” Despite the downturn in pig prices in 2012, high costs, low profits, high outbreaks and high risks are the reasons. However, this dilemma has not really broken the bottom line of farmers. Large-scale farmers are still actively expanding the scale of sows to reduce risks and costs , De-stocking slow decline, indicating that the downward cycle of pigs or will be extended. Expected in 2013, the overall or there will be downward trend in pig prices, maintained at 12 to 16 yuan / kg; piglet prices will also be 30 yuan / kg below the level of operation; pig raising a slight increase in high cost, but still normalized, Pig slaughter costs will be maintained at 13 ~ 14.2 yuan / kg, pig slaughter profitability in 2013 basically maintained at 100 yuan / head; according to the cost of breeding sows in 2012, the cost of piglets sold in 2013 will remain at 25 ~ 26 yuan / kg, so the profitability of piglets sold in 2013 under pressure, a greater risk of loss.