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2007年以来金融危机席卷全球,一些国家外汇市场剧烈动荡,与以往不同的是,市场化程度较高的浮动汇率制度下的许多国家亦发生了较为严重的货币危机。在此背景下,汇率制度的效果又一次成为政府和学术界关注的焦点。由此,本文以1978-2009年间180个国家的数据作为样本,对不同汇率制度的效果进行了多角度、全方位的分析和比较。首先,在对这期间的货币危机以各国货币对SDR的汇率重新进行识别基础上,对不同汇率制度下货币危机的发生情况进行了分析对比;进一步地,剔除货币危机时段,比较了不同汇率制度平稳运行的时间长度以及经济增长和通货膨胀效果;最后,综合上述实证分析结果,总结了不同汇率制度的效果特点及优劣,本文研究结论对我国未来汇率制度变革有重要的借鉴和启示意义。
Since 2007, the global financial crisis swept the world and the foreign exchange markets in some countries have been in turmoil. In contrast with the past, many countries under the more market-oriented floating exchange rate system experienced a serious currency crisis. In this context, the effectiveness of the exchange rate system once again become the focus of government and academia. Therefore, this article uses the data of 180 countries from 1978 to 2009 as a sample to conduct a multi-angle and comprehensive analysis and comparison of the effects of different exchange rate regimes. First of all, based on the re-identification of the currency exchange rate of the national currency against the SDR during the currency crisis in this period, the author analyzes and compares the occurrence of the currency crisis under different exchange rate regimes. Furthermore, excluding the currency crisis period, comparing different exchange rate regimes The length of steady operation and the effects of economic growth and inflation. Finally, based on the above empirical results, the author summarizes the performance characteristics and advantages and disadvantages of different exchange rate systems. The conclusions of this study are of important reference and inspiration for the future reform of China’s exchange rate system.