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客户需求的复杂多变及竞争激烈的市场环境使中小制造企业面临的挑战和压力越来越大。为了抓住市场机遇,满足中长期市场需求,企业需要进行阶段性的产能调整。产能调整次数过多或过少对企业生产成本都不利。本文采用灰色GM(1,1)原始模型及其背景值改进模型,对某企业过去十年年度销售量进行模拟,从中选择平均误差率最小的模型对未来十年的销售量进行预测,并以预测结果为依据进行产能决策,以总成本最小为目标确定产能扩充次数、扩充时间及扩充数量。文章建立的需求预测和产能决策模型都有较大的理论和实际意义。
The complex and changing customer needs and highly competitive market environment make small and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises face more and more challenges and pressures. In order to seize the market opportunities to meet the medium-and long-term market demand, enterprises need to stage production capacity adjustment. Too much or too little capacity adjustment is unfavorable to the production cost of the enterprise. In this paper, the gray GM (1,1) original model and its background value improvement model are used to simulate the annual sales volume of an enterprise over the past ten years. The model with the lowest average error rate is selected to predict the sales volume in the next ten years. The forecast results are based on capacity decisions, with a view to minimizing total costs as a target for capacity expansion, expansion and expansion. The demand forecasting and capacity decision-making model established by the article have great theoretical and practical significance.