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目的通过对国际邮轮传染病疫情开展风险评估与识别,为实施国际邮轮卫生检疫风险管理和制定传染病疫情控制策略提供科学依据。方法采用危险因素评估法、风险矩阵法和德尔斐(Delphi)评价法,通过相关领域专家调查问卷形式,对国际邮轮传染病疫情事件开展风险识别与评估。结果霍乱和肉毒毒素中毒为极严重的风险,包括诺如病毒和甲型H1N1流感在内的等19类疾病为高危险度风险,隐孢子虫等4种疾病为中危险度风险。结论明确了国际邮轮各种传染病等相关事件的主要风险,找出了风险控制的关键点,为有针对性进行技术储备和建立一套系统完善的国际邮轮疫情防控体系奠定了基础。
Objective To assess the risk of the international cruise infectious diseases and identify it, so as to provide a scientific basis for the implementation of the international cruise health quarantine risk management and the development of epidemic control strategies for infectious diseases. Methods Risk assessment, risk matrix and Delphi method were used to identify and assess the risk of international cruise epidemic outbreaks through questionnaires of experts in relevant fields. Results Cholera and botulinum toxin poisoning were extremely serious risks. 19 kinds of diseases including Norovirus and Influenza A (H1N1) were at high risk. Four kinds of diseases such as Cryptosporidium were also at risk of medium risk. Conclusion The main risks associated with infectious diseases of international cruise lines are clearly identified. The key points of risk control are identified, laying the foundation for the targeted technical reserve and establishment of a well-established international cruise control system.