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本文以海南城镇最低收入人群为研究对象、采用1993—2012年相关数据实证分析粮食价格和可支配收入对粮食安全的影响,并以2012年为基准测度粮食安全保障政策的启用边界和补贴标准。实证结果表明,粮食价格上涨将降低粮食安全水平,而可支配收入增加可以提高粮食安全水平,这意味由粮食价格上涨带来的粮食安全问题可以用可支配收入的增加来化解。政策模拟发现,海南城镇最低收入人群可以承受粮食价格上涨21.93%,当上涨幅度超越这一边界时就需要启动粮食安全保障政策,如果粮食价格在此基础上再上涨1%,需要补贴海南城镇最低收入人群20.22元/人·年以帮助他们应对粮食价格上涨、保障既有的福利水平和粮食安全。
Based on the data from 1993 to 2012, this paper empirically analyzes the impact of food prices and disposable income on food security in Hainan. Based on 2012, we test the application of the border and subsidy standards for food security policies. Empirical results show that rising food prices will reduce the level of food security, and increased disposable income can increase food security, which means that food security caused by rising food prices can be used to offset the increase in disposable income. According to the policy simulation, the lowest-income population in urban areas of Hainan can afford to rise 21.93% of the grain price. When the rate of increase goes beyond this boundary, it needs to start the food security policy. If the food price increases by 1% on this basis, the minimum need to subsidize the minimum The income group of 20.22 yuan / person · year to help them deal with food prices, to protect the existing level of welfare and food security.