2001年到2003年,宏观经济的上升周期使上市公司所借贷款中问题贷款比率呈下降趋势。但随着经济过热导致的宏观调控的逐渐深入,2004年和2005年上市公司的还款能力将有所恶化,问题贷款比率上升。在宏观经济平稳发展的背景下,如果不考虑核销和清收,2005和2006两年银行不良贷款余额呈上升趋势,不良贷款的上升势头将在05年达到顶点。经济过热带来的新增不良贷款使得上市银行的拔备压力短期内无法缓解,因此,银行应该提高风险管理水平,将资产投向安全的行业,以保证银行资产的安全性。 From 2001 to 2003, the rise cycle of the macroeconomy led to a downward trend in the problem loan ratio of loans borrowed by listed companies. However, with the gradual deepening of macroeconomic regulation and control caused by overheating, the repayment ability of listed companies will be deteriorated in 2004 and 2005, and the loan-to-problem ratio will rise. Against the backdrop of stable macroeconomic development, the balance of non-performing loans of banks increased in 2005 and 2006, and the rising trend of non-performing loans will reach its peak in 2005 if we do not consider cancellation and collection. The new non-performing loans brought by the economic overheating make the pressure of the preparation and preparation of the listed banks unable to be alleviated in a short period of time. Therefore, the banks should raise the level of risk management and invest the assets in safe sectors so as to ensure the safety of bank assets.