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根据昆虫种群内个体空间相互作用的特点,提出分析昆虫种群时空相关的三维相关图方法及种群动态预测的时空混合回归模型。对马尾松毛虫幼虫密度分布的预测采用了时空自回归加时空趋势面的形式,预测的马尾松毛虫幼虫的平均密度和实测的平均密度在时空变化的趋势上是完全一致的,而且预测结果给出了马尾松毛虫幼虫密度分布的图象形式,给防治决策提供了方便。
According to the characteristics of the individual spatial interactions within the insect population, a three-dimensional spatiotemporal correlation map method for insects and the spatio-temporal mixed regression model for population dynamics prediction are proposed. The density distribution of Dendrolimus punctatus was predicted by spatial-temporal autoregression plus the trend of space-time surface. The predicted average density of Dendrolimus punctatus and the observed average density are exactly the same in the temporal and spatial variation trend, and the prediction results Out of the mass distribution of Dendrolimus punctatus larvae image form, to provide a convenient decision-making prevention and control.